The past quarter has contributed to heighten uncertainty over the growth trajectories of the major economies, which are facing a global shock to confidence and a reorganisation of their relative competitiveness. The American exceptionalism of growth that has long been above potential, even under the influence of a restrictive monetary policy, has been called into question by the new trade policy, which...

The downward revision of our forecasts for the German economy is in line with the preliminary estimate of a 0.2% contraction in GDP in 2024. Activity in the first three quarters of 2024 was supported in particular by public consumption, despite limited budgetary resources. Household consumption, on the other hand, weighed on growth. Households switched to savings because of low consumer confidence in a...

After returning to pre-pandemic levels in early 2022, GDP growth slowed to 1.9% in 2022 from 3.1% in 2021. GDP is now only 0.3% higher than before the pandemic. The economy should grow by a modest 0.2% in 2024, below potential GDP growth, and by 1.1% in 2025.