Against a backdrop of global growth that has been surprisingly resilient, Western European economies are showing resilience, albeit at varying rates. The economies at the core of the Eurozone, particularly Germany, are showing sluggish growth at best, while the Iberian economies are being buoyed by strong private consumption and investment, the latter supported by funds from the European Recovery and...

The past quarter has contributed to heighten uncertainty over the growth trajectories of the major economies, which are facing a global shock to confidence and a reorganisation of their relative competitiveness. The American exceptionalism of growth that has long been above potential, even under the influence of a restrictive monetary policy, has been called into question by the new trade policy, which...

The Italian economy proved resilient in 2024 in an already unpromising international environment, with better-than-expected growth of 0.7%. But in early 2025 the economic outlook is sending out more mixed signals. Consumer and business confidence is weakening and uncertainties are mounting, with persistent geopolitical tensions and threats of tariff hikes from the United States. All of which puts the...

2025 is expected to be the third consecutive year of weak growth since the strong post-Covid recovery. Although the effects of the inflationary shock are starting to dissipate, with inflation under control, a more expansionary monetary policy and an upturn in household consumption, headwinds are likely to continue to penalise activity, with GDP expected to rise by only 0.6% after 0.5% in 2024. With...

In a still uncertain context, Italy's performance, compared to other countries in the Eurozone, appears rather positive. With a GDP increase of 0.2% in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter, the Italian economy is growing at the same pace as the French economy, despite a less favourable carryover (+0.6% in 2024), and is performing better than Germany, where GDP decreased by 0.1% over the...

Despite inflationary pressures and high interest rates, Italian growth proved "resilient" in 2023. Growth picked up slightly at the start of 2024, with a 0.3% increase in GDP, leaving an overhang of 0.6% for the year. Lower inflation combined with a stable labour market should support a modest recovery in consumption in the coming quarters, though consumer caution and a high savings rate may prevent a...

The Italian economy proved resilient in 2023, growing 0.9% despite an unfavourable international environment, persistently high inflation and difficult financing conditions owing to rising interest rates. But challenges remain and the outlook for 2024 is still mixed, with growth expected at 0.8%. Italy's growth prospects are undermined by global economic uncertainties, with the slowdown in the world's...

Italian economic growth was sluggish in 2023 and should remain lacklustre in 2024. After the shocks experienced in 2022 (energy crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine), the deterioration of the economic environment weighed on the economic outlook. From the second quarter of 2023, the cumulative effects of inflation and the initial rate hikes pushed economic activity into negative territory.