The past quarter has contributed to heighten uncertainty over the growth trajectories of the major economies, which are facing a global shock to confidence and a reorganisation of their relative competitiveness. The American exceptionalism of growth that has long been above potential, even under the influence of a restrictive monetary policy, has been called into question by the new trade policy, which...

We expect GDP growth of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2025 after +0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2024. But the recently released monthly GDP data for February suggest upside risks to our forecast. Growth in the first quarter could be close to 0.6% in quarterly variation.

Activity is expected to slow down in the second quarter. We expect growth of around 0.2% quarter-on-quarter due to...

The UK economy is on course to slow sharply in H2-24. Real GDP was stable in Q3 against our expectation for an increase (0.3% QoQ) after 0.4% QoQ in Q2. Business surveys deteriorated during Q4. Furthermore, financial conditions have tightened since the Autumn Budget 2024 and quite meaningfully so since the beginning 2025: gilt yields have risen sharply (around 60bp since October) and sterling has...

UK economic growth was sluggish in 2023, with a slight recession in H2 2023, as past shocks on producer costs and consumer prices coupled with tight monetary policy weighed on demand. Economic activity grew strongly in H1 2024 on expectations of monetary policy easing (which the Bank of England effectively started in August 2024), but growth is expected to slow going forward to an expected +0.3% QoQ in...

UK economic growth was sluggish in 2023, with a slight recession in the second half of the year as tight monetary policy weighed on demand. Economic activity grew strongly in first-quarter 2024, although household consumption remained low. 

Domestic demand, and household consumption in particular, is expected to be the main driver of the coming recovery, driven by solid real income growth and future rate...

The British will be heading out on 4 July to vote in early general elections. Polls predict a victor for Labour that could see the party take a large majority in the House of Commons. Labour has adopted a new philosophy centred on security (aka "securenomics"). On the domestic front, it is planning far-reaching supply-side reforms with a particular focus on private investment. 

The UK experienced almost zero growth in 2023, posting a slight recession in the second half as tight monetary policy weighed on demand. Inflation fell more sharply than expected, from 11.1% year-on-year in October 2022 to 4% in December 2023, pulled down by energy prices and moderating inflation in industrial goods. 

Inflation is expected to drop below target in Q2 2024 due to another decline in gas and...

After a slight decline in GDP in the third quarter (-0.1% QoQ), triggered by a sharp drop in private consumption and investment, we expect activity to stabilise in the fourth quarter in light of the improvement in business surveys, followed by positive but weak growth in early 2024. Disinflation surprised positively and government bond yields fell. Although the risk of recession continues to loom over...