The disinflationary process is well underway and expectations of monetary loosening are well anchored, so attention is now shifting to the outlook for growth in the Eurozone economy in an environment that should be 'normalised' by the end of our forecast horizon. 

It is thanks to the resilience of the labour market and a weaker than usual pass-through from the rise in key rates onto credit conditions...

The UK experienced almost zero growth in 2023, posting a slight recession in the second half as tight monetary policy weighed on demand. Inflation fell more sharply than expected, from 11.1% year-on-year in October 2022 to 4% in December 2023, pulled down by energy prices and moderating inflation in industrial goods. 

Inflation is expected to drop below target in Q2 2024 due to another decline in gas and...

The Italian economy proved resilient in 2023, growing 0.9% despite an unfavourable international environment, persistently high inflation and difficult financing conditions owing to rising interest rates. But challenges remain and the outlook for 2024 is still mixed, with growth expected at 0.8%. Italy's growth prospects are undermined by global economic uncertainties, with the slowdown in the world's...

Economic activity slowed significantly in France in 2023 on persistently high inflation and emphatic monetary tightening. The French economy grew 0.9% over the year (seasonal and working-day adjusted), after 2.5% in 2022, but avoided a recession. 

The economy is expected to recover in 2024, with annual growth stable at 0.9% but with higher quarterly growth than in 2023. Annual growth is expected to be...

Real estate crisis, demographic problems, trade tensions with the United States, concerning debt levels: multiple comparisons can be drawn between China today and 1980s Japan, sparking fears of a "Japanification" scenario for the Chinese economy. Such a scenario is characterised by a slowdown in economic activity caused by a drop in private consumption, the advent of a negative, deflation-fuelling price...

The Spanish economy is going through the final phase of the inflationary cycle that began in 2021 when global supply chains were disrupted owing to the end of the pandemic and gas prices came under pressure due to the war in Ukraine. After growth of 2.5% in 2023, we expect the Spanish economy to grow more moderately in 2024 owing to rising interest rates and the slowdown in the tourism sector, which is...

“Normalisation” is on the horizon, but bumps in the road are likely. Interest rates have not bitten quite as hard as expected, while the labour markets have generally held up well, and inflation is subsiding. However, in the US, inflation may settle above the Fed’s target. In the Eurozone, prices themselves may be an issue and could ultimately hobble growth.

Public opinion has always been one of the battlefields in power struggles. Now, though, thanks to a combination of geopolitical uncertainty and the "infobesity" (information overload) of what Joseph Nye called the Information Age, the role of public opinion is strategically more important. Who gets to decide who the enemy is? Governments or public opinion? The Global North or the Global South? Who will...

Find out about ECO Tour 2024, the annual report that tells you everything you need to know about the French economy, sector by sector. Read insights from our expert economists and consulting engineers covering commodities, semiconductors, employment, renewable energy, aerospace, automotive, construction, etc.

After returning to pre-pandemic levels in early 2022, GDP growth slowed to 1.9% in 2022 from 3.1% in 2021. GDP is now only 0.3% higher than before the pandemic. The economy should grow by a modest 0.2% in 2024, below potential GDP growth, and by 1.1% in 2025.