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Eurozone – 2025-2026 Scenario: a sluggish recovery at a slower pace than potential
Facing the relative slowdown in the US economy, growth in the Eurozone accelerated slightly over the summer, although still at a much lower rate than in the United States (0.9% year-on-year).
The upturn in household consumption seen over the summer bodes well for slightly stronger growth next year. The latest information on investment does not plead in favour of a marked acceleration. We have revised our...
United Kingdom – 2025-2026 Scenario: unwelcome policies in the autumn budget 2024 complicate the economic outlook
The UK economy is on course to slow sharply in H2-24. Real GDP was stable in Q3 against our expectation for an increase (0.3% QoQ) after 0.4% QoQ in Q2. Business surveys deteriorated during Q4. Furthermore, financial conditions have tightened since the Autumn Budget 2024 and quite meaningfully so since the beginning 2025: gilt yields have risen sharply (around 60bp since October) and sterling has...
Spain – 2025-2026 Scenario: Growth keeps pace
The Spanish economy managed to maintain a robust growth rate until Q3 2024 despite multiple headwinds, including weakness in the eurozone economies, persistently high inflation and the impact of past interest rate hikes. Behind this good performance are several key factors, including the solid performance of the labour market, continued high immigration and positive international tourism data, which once...