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[PAGE_1]Update on our 2024 French Growth Forecast[/PAGE_1]
[PAGE_2]French growth stalling: a risk to our scenario...[/PAGE_2]
[PAGE_2] ... But a clear lack of evidence so far[/PAGE_2]
Contacts / Experts
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CitationThe most significant effects in the short term would rather impact public finances, not growth. The impact on our growth scenario to 2025 should be very limited. Two opposite effects would actually occur: some negative real effects via a fall in confidence and some positive effects through less-restrictive fiscal policy than that projected by the former government (eg, Stability Programme).
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A month after President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly and called the election, some signs of a French economy stalling have arguably appeared. At least this is what Bank of France Governor François Villeroy mentioned recently. In practice, this is fully debatable. Although previous episodes of political uncertainty in other countries have triggered downward growth revisions (eg, Greece in 2015, Italy in 2018), we do not see any hard evidence of this in France so far.
