[PAGE_2]Why do we cut our French growth outlook from 1.0 to 0.8% for 2025?[/PAGE_2]
[PAGE_4]Impact on budget metrics already significant with a 6.0% deficit in 2025[/PAGE_4]
[PAGE_5]What about 2026? Some hopes...[/PAGE_5]

Marianne PICARD

Due to slower growth and higher public spending, we increase our public deficit forecast from 5.5% to 6.0% of GDP. Higher public spending accounts for +0.3ppt, while weaker growth including the effect on public revenues adds +0.2ppt to the forecast. This is in line with the Special Law rolled for some time and a future budget bill for 2025 at some point at the beginning of next year that will need to find a complicate balance at the assembly and buy compromises.

Marianne
 
PICARD
Economist

Due to latest political developments and recent soft data (BdF survey, PMIs etc.), we are currently reviewing into details our forecast for France. The final and official version will be published in CASA Eco next ‘World scenario’ that will be published on 20 December. In this paper, we introduce some key preliminary figures that we obtained, the main news is the downward revision of our growth forecast from 1.0% to 0.8% for 2025.