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Western Europe
31 January 2025  •  ECO Publication

Eurozone – 2025-2026 Scenario: a sluggish recovery at a slower pace than potential

Body

Facing the relative slowdown in the US economy, growth in the Eurozone accelerated slightly over the summer, although still at a much lower rate than in the United States (0.9% year-on-year).

The upturn in household consumption seen over the summer bodes well for slightly stronger growth next year. The latest information on investment does not plead in favour of a marked acceleration. We have revised our...

Paola MONPERRUS-VERONI
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United Kingdom
Western Europe
23 January 2025  •  ECO Publication

United Kingdom – 2025-2026 Scenario: unwelcome policies in the autumn budget 2024 complicate the economic outlook

Body

The UK economy is on course to slow sharply in H2-24. Real GDP was stable in Q3 against our expectation for an increase (0.3% QoQ) after 0.4% QoQ in Q2. Business surveys deteriorated during Q4. Furthermore, financial conditions have tightened since the Autumn Budget 2024 and quite meaningfully so since the beginning 2025: gilt yields have risen sharply (around 60bp since October) and sterling has...

Slavena NAZAROVA
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Spain
Western Europe
22 January 2025  •  ECO Publication

Spain – 2025-2026 Scenario: Growth keeps pace

Body

The Spanish economy managed to maintain a robust growth rate until Q3 2024 despite multiple headwinds, including weakness in the eurozone economies, persistently high inflation and the impact of past interest rate hikes. Behind this good performance are several key factors, including the solid performance of the labour market, continued high immigration and positive international tourism data, which once...

Ticiano BRUNELLO
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Espagne – Scénario 2025-2026
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