Economic activity continued to grow in France in Q1 2024, up 0.2% after 0.3% in Q4 2023. The growth overhang at the end of the first quarter thus stands at 0.6% for 2024. 

As we finalised our scenario before the dissolution of the National Assembly, it can be described as “politically neutral” or “with policy unchanged”. But the political picture that appears to be emerging, with none of the coalitions...

UK economic growth was sluggish in 2023, with a slight recession in the second half of the year as tight monetary policy weighed on demand. Economic activity grew strongly in first-quarter 2024, although household consumption remained low. 

Domestic demand, and household consumption in particular, is expected to be the main driver of the coming recovery, driven by solid real income growth and future rate...

The Spanish economy managed to maintain a robust growth rate at the beginning of the year despite numerous unfavourable factors, including the weakness of the Eurozone economies, persistently high inflation, and the impact of the rise in interest rates, which were expected to peak in first-quarter 2024. The strong performance resulted from several key factors, with positive labour-market momentum...

A month after President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly and called the election, some signs of a French economy stalling have arguably appeared. At least this is what Bank of France Governor François Villeroy mentioned recently. In practice, this is fully debatable. Although previous episodes of political uncertainty in other countries have triggered downward growth revisions (eg, Greece...

It may seem odd to stick an ‘extension without disruption’ label on an economic and financial scenario beset by political uncertainties of varying intensity, which will be removed either sooner (legislative elections in France) or later (US presidential election). Whereas the second event is likely to significantly structure/alter a scenario’s major plot points, the first is less likely to wipe out the...

The British will be heading out on 4 July to vote in early general elections. Polls predict a victor for Labour that could see the party take a large majority in the House of Commons. Labour has adopted a new philosophy centred on security (aka "securenomics"). On the domestic front, it is planning far-reaching supply-side reforms with a particular focus on private investment. 

The disinflationary process is well underway and expectations of monetary loosening are well anchored, so attention is now shifting to the outlook for growth in the Eurozone economy in an environment that should be 'normalised' by the end of our forecast horizon. 

It is thanks to the resilience of the labour market and a weaker than usual pass-through from the rise in key rates onto credit conditions...

The UK experienced almost zero growth in 2023, posting a slight recession in the second half as tight monetary policy weighed on demand. Inflation fell more sharply than expected, from 11.1% year-on-year in October 2022 to 4% in December 2023, pulled down by energy prices and moderating inflation in industrial goods. 

Inflation is expected to drop below target in Q2 2024 due to another decline in gas and...

The Italian economy proved resilient in 2023, growing 0.9% despite an unfavourable international environment, persistently high inflation and difficult financing conditions owing to rising interest rates. But challenges remain and the outlook for 2024 is still mixed, with growth expected at 0.8%. Italy's growth prospects are undermined by global economic uncertainties, with the slowdown in the world's...

Economic activity slowed significantly in France in 2023 on persistently high inflation and emphatic monetary tightening. The French economy grew 0.9% over the year (seasonal and working-day adjusted), after 2.5% in 2022, but avoided a recession. 

The economy is expected to recover in 2024, with annual growth stable at 0.9% but with higher quarterly growth than in 2023. Annual growth is expected to be...